We are in reasonably
exciting times just now. Of course if you start to think like that it
seems you are doing nothing but preparing your self for yet another
long stand in the cold with an anti climax in the end. Over the
nights of the10th and 11th I was hoping for a
glancing blow from an earlier CME. Over the last two nights the
positive magnetic field has pushed almost everything away from us and
there has been almost nothing to be seen. Ironicaly we have had a
couple of the finest clearest nights you could wish for. Even the
huge moon is rising later and helping to give us nice dark skys from
the off. EPAM has risen but there is so much going on I think it is
more of a harbinger of current flare activity happening now. The
previous few days have seen 2297 producing continuous flaring with
loads of C class, several strong M class, some of which produced
coronal mass ejections and while not coming directly at us are
expected to have some influence. last night the one we are all
waiting for an X2.2 with a CME came ripping out followed by another M
class. NOAA has a storm warning in place now and they are expecting
potential effects from the Ms to scrape past us and stir the pot.
2297 Is now coming in to a position where it will be fully geo
effective. It still maintains a complicated magnetic structure which
is good because it means there is still some potential for more very
big flares as it really starts to face us. We are about to feel the
effects of an incoming HSS from a recurring equatorial hole CH658.
Hopefully the high speed solar wind and the clouds of plasma will
cook up something for us. All kitchen analogies aside I am really
hoping that this is one pot that will boil over on the stove.......With
all that said we all know fine there are no givens in this game. Many
of you will have stood here before, X flare hurling towards us with
the UK press hyping it and expectations sky high so lets be
realistic. There is the potential for lights over the next two
nights, maybe even more. As the last two nights and other X events as
well have shown it is just as easy for all of this to simply bounce
off the magnetic field and carry on past us, and after all this is
what the planets magnetic field does so well, protect us from this
dangerous shit. That aside I am some looking forwards to darkness.
The game may just be afoot.